DUNFERMLINE RESULT

PARLIAMENTARY BY-ELECTION

DUNFERMLINE AND WEST FIFE CONSTITUENCY

THURSDAY 9TH FEBRUARY 2006




Majority 1,800

Liberal Democrats GAIN from Labour



by_elections.blogspot - THE BEST coverage from Dunfermline

Scottish Christian Party - "A very encouraging result"

The Scottish Christian Party confirmed itself as a contender for a Scottish Parliamentary seat in Mid Scotland and Fife next year.

In the Dunfermline and West Fife by-election, that attracted less than half the electorate the Scottish Christian Party leader, Revd James George Hargreaves, came sixth in the poll, behind the five contesting parties that already have seats in the Holyrood Parliament: Liberal Democrat (12,391) Labour (10,591), Scottish National Party (7,261), Conservative (2,702), Scottish Socialist Party (537) and Scottish Christian Party (411).

Revd Hargreaves commented, “This is a very encouraging result, particularly when you consider the low key campaign that we ran. We sent out one letter and an Election Address and delivered copies of our party newspaper. Set this against the mountain of paper sent out by the other parties and you can see clearly that the Scottish Christian Party are a party that next year could win a Scottish Parliamentary seat in the Mid Scotland and Fife region. Over half of the electorate did not vote in this by-election. There will have been many Christian amongst the non-votes who over the next year we will seek to engage with and win their support.”

Revd Hargreaves congratulated the Liberal Democrats saying, “The Liberal Democrats and Willie Rennie, ran a spectacular text book Lib Dem campaign. I would have been surprised if they had not won. However, it must be noted that in this by-election they were an opposition party fighting the candidate of a very unpopular Labour Party in Government. Next year the Liberal Democrats will have to defend their record as a party of government in Scotland – that will be a totally different matter as the Liberal Democrats have a lot to answer for in Holyrood.”

The Scottish Christian Party narrowly missed beating the Scottish Socialist Party who extensively campaigned door to door. In the 2003 Holyrood elections the Scottish Socialist Party narrowly missed winning a seat. William Thompson, co-founder of the Scottish Christian Party noted, “The SSP playing at the top of their game, only achieve 126 votes more than us. Their candidate, John McAllion, was a notable Labour MP. Yet the Scottish Christian Party are nipping at the heels of the SSP and we have just entered the fray. I see no reason why we cannot surpass the SSP when we are up to full speed.”

Perhaps the most telling outcome was the fact that the Scottish Christian Party beat UKIP by almost 2 to 1. Revd Hargreaves said, “We have made our view, that Britain should make an orderly withdrawal from the European Union, crystal clear. However, there is more to our politics than the EU question. There is no point in the UK being out of the EU and not in Christ. What does it profit a country to win its independence from the EU and lose its soul? That’s the major issue.”

Revd Hargreaves also noted that, “Revd Dick Rodgers of the Common Good party probably siphoned off between 50 and 100 votes as Christians had to decide which church minister they would back. Nevertheless, the Scottish Christian Party’s uncompromising Christ-based message received the overwhelming endorsement of the Christian vote, giving the Scottish Christian Party four times as many votes as the Common Good party.” Revd Hargreaves added, “I have spoken with Revd Rodgers and it is my prayer that we can avoid the situation in the future where two Christian ministers are fighting each other at the polls.”

Scottish Christian Party

Statement from Tom Minogue

Thank you to the 374 Fifers who saw through the spin and voted for Tom Minogue, who issued this statement:-

"The first thing I would like to place on record now that the people of Dunfermline and West Fife have spoken, is my congratulations to Willie Rennie on being elected member of Parliament for the Dunfermline and West Fife constituency.

It is heartening to see that Labour have been found out in Fife and their supposed Fiefdom is now exposed as a myth.

As for our own party I consider that taking all things into account we have acquitted ourselves well to poll 374 votes, we finished in front of one UK party (UKIP) and were not too far behind the Scottish Socialist Party candidate John McAllion who in anyone's view is one of the most experienced and respected politicians in Scotland.

To achieve over 1% of the vote might not seem much but we polled 12% of what the Conservative candidate polled and this is no mean achievement when one considers that today marks the second week in existence for the Abolish Forth Bridge Tolls Party-compare this with our opponents in the major parties who count their age in hundreds of years-we have had to learn the ropes in a short space of time. We cannot complain about that as we knew this when we in NAAT Scotland decided to stand.

What we did not know was that the National Media in the form of TV, Radio, and the Press would give us and the other four other "minor" candidates virtually no platform on which to get our message across. I took this up with Michael Crick on BBC Newsnight and he said that they (the media) had to make a judgement on which parties were most likely to win. I suppose the extension to this argument is that in the next election the BBC may only interview who they reckon will be the winner during the campaign. This is sad and does not reflect well on our so called enlightened democracy. I must, though, thank the local and regional newspapers for giving us some opportunity to get our message across.

At the risk of appearing churlish I would also take this opportunity of criticising in the strongest possible terms the Labour Government for calling this election only a matter of days after the death of the previous MP. Apart from showing little respect for their dead colleague this move gave a massive advantage to the major parties whose party machines are geared to spring into action, and most of all to their own party-but the fast track election made it hard for the small parties and harder still for us who had to first set-up a party to contest the election. However now that we are set-up and have some experience of how an election works be sure that this experience will not be wasted-we will contest the next election in this constituency on the same manifesto of abolishing tolls and other local issues. We shall return.

But now our first priority is to lobby MSP's to put pressure on the Scottish Executive not to extend the Tolling Order which as part of the 1958 Act allows a bridge joint board to collect tolls after the period by which they should have expired.

Finally I would like to thank the returning officer and his staff for their assistance and guidance and of course all who have taken part in this hasty election, but in most cases these officials and staff are paid for their efforts. So most of my praise must go to my own supporters who have sacrificed their leisure time and worked tirelessly to compress a month's work into a two week period. To me, they were the real winners in this election."

No Tolls

Labour in bitter blame game

LABOUR was embroiled last night in its most divisive bout of in-fighting for years, as the Westminster party tried to pin the Dunfermline by-election defeat on Jack McConnell.

While the Scottish Secretary, Alistair Darling, took public responsibility for the failed campaign, behind the scenes Labour MPs launched stinging attacks on the First Minister, saying his "pathetic" interference had crippled the party's chances and allowed the Liberal Democrats to record a stunning victory.

"What the hell did Jack think he was doing?" demanded one MP, who pointed at Mr McConnell's failure to take an early decision on the Forth Road Bridge tolls despite determined attempts by Gordon Brown to "bounce" him into it.

Other divisions soon emerged: Blairites questioned Gordon Brown's fitness to lead the party when he could not deliver a victory in his own backyard, while Brownites attacked the Defence Secretary, John Reid, for his apparent failure to turn up to a campaign engagement at Rosyth dockyard last week.

The backbiting started soon after the result. The Liberal Democrats had overturned an 11,500 Labour majority and won by 1,800 votes - their first Scottish by-election triumph over Labour for nearly a century.

As the Lib Dems cheered, Catherine Stihler, the Labour candidate, fled the count in shock, shielded by Labour minders.

By yesterday morning, she had regained something of her composure and appeared in public with Mr Darling to try to explain what had gone wrong.

The Scotsman

Liberal Democrats' tour de force was planned down to a tea

THIS time last week, as the Dunfermline by-election entered its final phase, there were 200 volunteers at the Liberal Democrat campaign headquarters in Inverkeithing.

They had come from all over the UK armed with leaflets, stickers and a determination to defeat Labour. Everything was so well co-ordinated that the party knows how many cups of tea were consumed in the party HQ that day (400) and how many pints of milk were bought to lighten the tea (18 pints).

There was one woman whose sole job was to organise accommodation for the activists and MPs from all over the country who had answered the party's call and arrived in Dunfermline to help.

Some Liberal Democrat leaflets were individually tailored to specific voters. One or two MPs from the south of England came to campaign even though they had never been to Scotland before.

It was a typical Liberal Democrat by-election effort. The party decided to work as thoroughly and as completely as possible on the ground to overturn Labour's majority, and it worked.

The other parties, however, have a slightly different view on the Liberal Democrat campaign. Douglas Chapman, the defeated SNP candidate, described the tactics as "weapons of mass deceit".

He was particularly sore about an advertisement which was placed on the front of the Dunfermline Press on the morning of the by-election which looked uncannily like the newspaper text on the rest of the front page, and which heralded a tight finish between Labour and the Liberal Democrats.

Other senior SNP figures blame a well stunted photograph which the Liberal Democrats orchestrated a day before the by-election.

Willie Rennie, the winning candidate, was pictured with his leader, Nicol Stephen, standing on top of the Forth Bridge. It was such an eye-catching image that most newspapers, desperate for something new on the by-election, ran it in colour. The Dundee Courier even put it all over its front page. The impression was given: this man is on his way to the top.

But neither of these stunts was illegal, simply smart and astute electioneering, something the Liberal Democrats have honed to a fine edge.

For the campaign itself, the Lib Dems focused on local issues: the state of the centre of Dunfermline, the reorganisation of local hospital services, and the Forth Road Bridge tolls.

Somehow the party managed to exploit concern over these issues despite the fact that all are devolved or council responsibilities and, strictly speaking, have nothing to do with the area's MP. Mr Rennie insisted he did not see any problem in condemning Labour by talking up local issues - even though the Liberal Democrats share power with Labour at Holyrood.

He said: "We were responding to the issues people raised on the doorstep; that is why we campaigned on these issues."

Mr Rennie said the party may have been opposing Labour locally, but it was the "Labour-controlled bridge board", the "Labour-controlled education authority" and the health board they were taking on, not the Executive.

This may seem like a semantic distinction, particularly given the Labour Party was the Liberal Democrats' main opposition during the campaign.

But it is a distinction the victorious Liberal Democrats have to maintain to keep the sometimes rocky relations within the coalition from dissolving completely.

The Liberal Democrat campaign was successful but it was not cheap. Initial estimates suggest the party spent about £70,000 on the by-election effort.

That is a lot of money to elect one MP, but not a lot when the huge electoral boost generated by this week's shock result is taken into account.

The Scotsman

How wheels came off Labour's bandwagon

THIS was the mouse that roared - the by-election campaign that should have been a formality for Scottish Labour, but which turned into the party's most disastrous electoral experience for years.

Rachel Squire, the sitting MP, died in tragic circumstances. Her replacement candidate, Catherine Stihler, was a close friend, an experienced politician and had even shared an office with Ms Squire.

Gordon Brown lives in the constituency and Labour had a seemingly unassailable majority of 11,500. Surely nothing could go wrong. Could it?

The wheels came off the Labour campaign from the very first day. Suddenly, the Liberal Democrats thought they could actually win it, as did the Scottish National Party. The Conservatives did not harbour any realistic hopes of winning, but even they thought they could improve their vote substantially.

Labour's problems took off with the closure of the Lexmark plant at Rosyth, with the loss of 700 jobs on 24 January. Mr Brown had been in the area the day before, talking about "jobs coming and jobs going". He knew of the Lexmark bombshell, but said nothing.

Then, to deflect attention from the job losses, Labour tried to concentrate on the Forth Road Bridge, but this got the party into even more trouble. Mr Brown again was at the centre of controversy when he announced that the Scottish Executive had shelved plans for tolls of up to £4 on the bridge before ministers had taken the decision.

This "bounced" Jack McConnell, the First Minister, into an announcement that he was against the £4 toll.

Mr Brown and Alistair Darling, the Scottish Secretary, then backed plans for a second road bridge across the Forth - again straying into devolved matters. Mr Brown also intervened to announce plans for a new business college in Dunfermline, without telling the Executive's enterprise minister, Nicol Stephen, a Liberal Democrat.

The impression was that Labour's big guns did not care whose toes they trod on to try to set the by-election agenda, and that Labour politicians were squabbling among themselves.

The cumulative effect of all these bungled announcements and the job losses was to undermine Labour's momentum and hand it to the opposition.

To make matters worse, on Tuesday, 31 January, Tony Blair suffered a shock defeat in the Commons over his plans to introduce religious hatred legislation, thanks to the absence of about a dozen Labour MPs staying in Dunfermline to campaign. Labour's desperation to keep Dunfermline and West Fife was starting to have an impact nationally, and the Prime Minister was the victim.

Then came the day, Thursday, 2 February, when the by-election really took off nationally. David Cameron and Charles Kennedy both came to Dunfermline High Street, bringing with them photographers, camera crews and journalists from London.

The contrast between the media circus surrounding the two national leaders and Mr Brown, who sat in a café just off the High Street eating carrot soup with a close circle of colleagues, was startling.

It appeared not only as if the by-election was Labour's to lose, but, thanks to the Chancellor, it was doing a pretty good job at achieving that.

Labour had the Liberal Democrats on one side, fighting the tight sort of by-election campaign they have mastered, and the Nationalists on the other, focusing on local issues with real resonance.

Mr Brown came back, several times, to promise thousands of new jobs and repeat his mantra of "jobs, prosperity and stability", but to limited effect.

Last night, Labour strategists were trying to sift through the wreckage of their campaign. Some blamed the war in Iraq, pointing to the pictures of the 99th and 100th British victims of the war, both Scots, whose bodies arrived back in the UK near the end of the campaign.

Others blamed the Lexmark closure, while others blamed the public spat between Mr McConnell and Mr Brown.

There was not one single factor that defeated Labour. The party lost about 8,000 votes from last year's general election. About a third switched to the Liberal Democrats, a smaller proportion went to the SNP and the rest stayed at home.

What these 8,000 voters did was register discontent and frustration with the party in power. They realised they could make a point to the government, which would be heard, and the Liberal Democrats were the party best placed to exploit it.

Labour managers can try to brush over the defeat, but there is a central truth that Mr Darling acknowledged. This was a by-election Labour could and should have won without breaking sweat but, somehow, the party contrived to lose it.

Despite his almost constant presence in the constituency throughout the campaign, Mr Brown was not in town yesterday to explain where the voters have gone. He was in Moscow talking money with other world finance ministers.

Some of his Labour colleagues might have wished he had gone abroad at the start of the campaign and stayed away.

Scotsman

High turnout makes Labour's defeat even worse

A high turnout makes Labour's defeat a depressingly low slump for Brown

THE Labour defeat in Dunfermline & West Fife is even worse than it first appears; and not just because the loss had not been widely predicted. So Tony Blair, and particularly Gordon Brown, should be worried. Unlike most by-elections, it was not just a matter of fed-up voters staying at home.
Turnout, at 49 per cent, was higher than in any byelection in the last Parliament and higher than in all but two by-elections since 1997.

Admittedly, the switch of votes from Labour to the Liberal Democrats of 16.2 per cent was much less than in the last four by-elections of the 2001-05 Parliament, and the huge swings of 26 and 29 per cent in 2004. But these were on much lower turnouts. So on Thursday, in the absence of the usual squeeze on the third party, there was a sizeable shift directly from Labour to the Liberal Democrats, rather than just abstentions.

If the by-election had been in northeast England, rather than Fife, the headlines would have been all about Mr Blair in trouble with speculation about how long he could stay in 10 Downing Street. But, for the first time, Mr Brown is also deeply involved. He lives in the constituency and is a neighbouring MP. So it is a problem for them both. Local issues, such as tolls on the Forth Road Bridge, job losses and hospital cutbacks seem to have played a part, in a reversal of the familiar pattern when local politicians blame loses on national trends.

The by-election defeat is very worrying for Labour’s prospects in the local elections in two months. The party will be seeking to defend its already reduced council base in the London boroughs, the big industrial cities of the Midlands and the North, and the many medium-sized towns.

Mr Blair and Mr Brown now face a joint challenge in quelling unrest among Labour MPs and party activists before important Commons votes over the schools Bill, and next week on ID cards, and terrorism, as Mr Blair recognised yesterday in his rather defensive Blackpool speech.

For the Liberal Democrats, victory is obviously a welcome boost after the traumas of the past two months. Support for the party is not in freefall: far from it. Indeed, recent opinion polls, such as the Populus survey in The Times, put the party’s rating at 18 per cent, five points less than last May, but well above the low of 13 per cent in a poll last month.

This again suggests that voters are less fevered and more detached than some of the media in distinguishing between politicians’ personal lives and problems and their attitudes to a party.

The direct impact on the Lib Dem leadership contest may be limited. If there is any beneficiary, it may be Sir Menzies Campbell, since Dunfermline is in his home area of Fife and he is the acting leader of the party. But his race with Chris Huhne remains very close.

The Conservatives can dismiss their fourth place and slight loss of support in a seat where they never had a chance. But David Cameron’s tactic of portraying himself as a liberal Conservative badly backfired. And, before too long, probably in May, he has to be able to point to real gains.

Thursday’s result is, of course, no guide to what will happen in the 2009 or 2010 general election. By-elections are usually talking points rather than turning points. Dunfermline has changed the political conversation.

The Times

Activists' gloom over by-election

Dennis Skinner


The sun may have been shining outside but there was a distinct air of gloom about Blackpool's Winter Gardens as Labour activists digested Thursday night's shock by-election defeat.

Veteran left-winger Dennis Skinner described the loss of Dunfermline and West Fife to the Liberal Democrats by 1,800 votes - overturning an 11,500 Labour majority - as the biggest by-election upset he had ever witnessed.

The Labour party had simply not seen it coming.

"It was the silent revolution," said Mr Skinner. "I made over 300 calls on the phone in the constituency and nobody mentioned the Liberal Democrats."

Mr Skinner's theory is "that people were voting for Menzies Campbell", who represents a neighbouring seat.

But he conceded the Lib Dems had been "quietly cultivating" the seat.

'Difficult seat'

There were dark mutterings from others about Liberal Democrat tactics, with the party accused of campaigning while Labour's Rachel Squire - whose death triggered the contest - was on her death bed.

"It was a bad result," said Nick Forbes, who as deputy Labour leader on Lib Dem-controlled Newcastle council knows what it feels like to lose to the third party.

He said Dunfermline and West Fife was "a difficult seat, in terms of not being a traditional Labour seat".

But he said lessons had to be learned ahead of the local elections.

"It means we have got to redouble our efforts in the May elections."

BBC News

Labour and SNP respond to by-election failure

Representatives for both Labour and the SNP have announced their response to the Dunfermline and Fife West by-election last night where the Liberal Democrats won their first by-election over Labour in Scotland since the Second World War.

The Labour majority melted away, leaving a Liberal Democrat by-election victory on a swing of 16%. The Labour vote collapsed despite the high profile intervention of the Chancellor, Gordon Brown, while the SNP were up on the last election but arguably should have done better. The so-called Cameron bounce expected after the visit of the Tory leader to Dunfermline never materialised, leaving the Liberal Democrats to win the constituency.

Labour spokesman, Alistair Darling said of the result: "Clearly, from our point of view there are lessons to be learned,
both in terms of the immediate issues and also in relation to the by-election, generally, but make no bones about it,
this is a by-election we should not have lost. We did, we need to learn the lessons from that and we will."

The SNP remained upbeat despite their loss, with Alec Salmond commenting: "In a by-election, you have to present yourselves as the challengers, that was the battle that was going on between us and the Liberal Democrats.
W
hoever won that battle was going to win the seat because the Labour vote was in freefall, it was collapsing.

Eventually the Liberals won that battle of perceptions, so we only increased our vote modestly."

Scotland Today

Labour analyses by-election result

Labour chiefs are analysing what went wrong in a by-election which saw a safe Labour seat tumble to the Liberal Democrats in Gordon Brown's own back yard.

As the inquest got under way the party put on a brave public face, insisting the loss of Dunfermline and West Fife was down to purely local issues. But jubilant Liberal Democrats said Tony Blair's party was paying the price for taking voters for granted.

The Prime Minister made no mention of the defeat when he opened a school in Liverpool, but deputy Prime Minister John Prescott said: "Of course we are disappointed about the by-election result. We always want to win. We should have won up there. But we did out best, we put our case and we'll get on now with delivering the programme that we promised at the last election."

Scottish Secretary Alistair Darling blamed Labour's defeat on local issues, and denied the result reflected badly on Chancellor Gordon Brown, who lives in the constituency and was prominent in the campaign.

Liberal Democrat by-election winner Willie Rennie staged a victory parade down the main street of the town he sensationally captured from Labour after overturning a majority of more than 11,500.

He was surrounded by jubilant placard-waving supporters as he walked down the high street of Dunfermline and two of the three Liberal Democrat leadership contenders, Simon Hughes and Sir Menzies Campbell, were also there to bask in their party's hour of triumph.

Mr Rennie declared: "We have engaged on the issues that matter to people in this constituency. People are fed up with Labour. They have taken our country for granted for too long - there is too much spin and not enough delivery."

Mr Hughes said: "It is a success against Labour in Gordon Brown's backyard. It is a hugely important result against the SNP - we have left them behind, they are not moving forwards."

Sir Menzies Campbell said the result raised questions about Mr Brown's succession to Number 10. "People will say: 'Well, if Gordon Brown is going to be the Prime Minister and he can't hold a traditional Labour seat on his own back doorstep then just how is he going to go down in the leafy glades of Essex or Surrey or places like that?' This must raise some questions about the succession," said Sir Menzies.

The defeat marks Labour's first by-election defeat in Scotland since 1988, and the Lib Dems' first by-election victory north of the border since 1991.

At last year's General Election Rachel Squire, whose death in January led to the by-election, won the seat for Labour with a majority of 11,562 over the Liberal Democrats. Pundits had predicted that Labour candidate Catherine Stihler would hold the seat but with a dramatically reduced majority.

Scotsman

Labour has blamed "local issues" for its shock defeat

Labour has blamed "local issues" for its shock defeat in last night's Dunfermline and West Fife by-election.

The Liberal Democrats overturned a Labour majority of 11,500 to pull off a stunning victory.

It was a personal humiliation for Gordon Brown, who lives in the constituency and took charge of his party's campaign.

The Lib Dems captured the seat with a massive swing of 16 per cent.

Their candidate Willie Rennie got more than 12,000 votes.Labour came a dissappointing second with 10-and-a-half thousand.

The SNP was third with just over 7,000 and in David Cameron's first by-election, the Conservatives failed to improve on fourth place.

Lib Dems are jubilant

DELIGHTED Liberal Democrats today claimed their stunning victory in Dunfermline and West Fife had put them on course for gains at next year's Holyrood elections. Lib Dem candidate Willie Rennie overturned a Labour majority of 11,500 to win the seat by 1800 votes.

The surprise by-election result - a 16 per cent swing from Labour to the Lib Dems - is a damaging blow to Chancellor Gordon Brown, who had taken a leading role in Labour's campaign.

Scottish Secretary Alistair Darling today blamed local issues for Labour's defeat.

"It is a very bad result for us," he said. "We should not have lost the seat. This was a classic by-election, fought very much on local issues - the question of tolls on the Forth Road Bridge, issues around the local hospital, concern about the town centre and the job losses at Lexmark. We are the Government and we are in the firing line.

"There is a lot of concern, in some cases downright anger about local issues and we took it in the neck."

But he admitted national issues did play a part, saying: "We are in government at Westminster and a dominant partner in the Scottish Executive. If people wanted to register a protest vote we were going to cop it. And we did cop it."

He added: "I accept entire responsibility for the conduct of this election campaign. We wanted to win it, we did not win it."

It was the first time the Lib Dems had taken a Labour seat in a by-election in Scotland.

Scottish Lib Dem leader Nicol Stephen said: "It is clear the Liberal Democrats are a very powerful force for the future in Scottish politics and that we can win seats from the Labour Party in all parts of Scotland."

He claimed the Lib Dem victory in Labour's heartlands would not affect the two parties' coalition in the Scottish Executive.

"We have a stable four-year partnership agreement," he said. "Between backbenchers there may be a bit of tension, but we are going to see that out. But in the 2007 elections, I think the Lib Dems are going to do extremely well. This is a tremendous launch pad."

Senior Edinburgh Lib Dem Fred Mackintosh said if the Dunfermline swing was repeated at next year's Scottish Parliament elections, the party would win both Edinburgh Central and Edinburgh North and Leith. "We could achieve major gains in 2007," he said.

The Lib Dems' victory came despite bad publicity which has dogged the party for weeks with the forced resignation of former leader Charles Kennedy over his drink problem, would-be successor Mark Oaten's rent boy scandal and the gay confessions of leadership candidate Simon Hughes.

Mr Kennedy was well received when he made a high-profile visit to the seat. Mr Stephen said: "Charles Kennedy's intervention was a very important factor. People like him and he is still a popular campaigner."

The victorious Mr Rennie, a former chief executive of the Scottish Lib Dems, said: "This result will send a powerful message that will rock the foundations of Downing Street - both No 10 and No 11.

"People are fed up with Labour for taking them for granted for far too long, they are fed up of too much spin, and the people of Dunfermline and West Fife have spoken for the rest of the country."

Defeated Labour candidate Catherine Stihler paid tribute to Rachel Squire, the MP whose death caused the by-election.

She said: "This is not a result which Rachel would have wanted but I think I know what she would have said - 'We have to listen to the people and we have to learn.'"

The Lib Dems came second in the seat at last year's general election, but the SNP was only one per cent behind them.

The Nationalists claimed throughout the campaign they were the main challengers. They did increase their vote by two per cent but their failure to come anywhere close to winning does not suggest they will make the 20 gains which leader Alex Salmond is targeting for Holyrood next year.

Mr Salmond claimed the Lib Dems had run a "shameless anti-government campaign" even though they were part of the Scottish Executive. He said the result was a humiliation for Gordon Brown, with the SNP winning his home North Queensferry ward.

The Tories, whose vote dropped to 7.8 per cent, were never going to win. But Shadow Scottish Secretary David Mundell said Labour brought defeat on themselves by failing to attack the Lib Dems.

Scotsman

This will send shockwaves through Labour, says victor

The Liberal Democrats' victor in the Dunfermline and West Fife by-election, Willie Rennie, said today that the voters had "sent a powerful message to the Labour government that will rock the foundations of Downing Street" .

"This is truly a historic victory." he said. "I think Gordon Brown may be a little bit worried himself.

"This by-election will send shockwaves through Westminster. Labour has taken the people up and down the country for granted for far too long. Too much spin and not enough delivery.

"It's time that Tony Blair and Gordon Brown both got that message. This is a sensational victory."

Mr Rennie said his party had shown that it was the clear challenger in the Labour heartland.

He said on BBC television: "This election is quite symbolic. People are fed-up with Labour. They are going to be fed-up with Labour in their heartlands because Labour think they will get elected without doing any work at all and this shows that no longer is the case.

"The Labour Party must be very worried about the Liberal Democrat advance, especially right next to Gordon Brown's own seat.

"I've got three or four years to prove I am worthy to be the MP in Dunfermline and West Fife and I will be working hard to win more of their trust to make sure I win it next time. This seat can be held for the Liberal Democrats."

Asked who he was backing in the leadership contest, Mr Rennie said: "I've had quite a busy time over the last few hours and weeks and have not finally made up my mind who I'm going to be backing in this election."

Acting leader and leadership contender Sir Menzies Campbell said: "It comes, of course, as a great antidote to the turbulence of the last few weeks and will make an enormous difference to the morale of the party. The Liberal Democrats are back in business."

The Scottish Secretary Alistair Darling admitted it had been a poor result for Labour but said the campaign was dominated by local issues, including plans to quadruple the tolls on the Forth road bridge.

He said on BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "It was a very bad result for us, let's make no bones about it. This was a safe seat, we should not have lost it.

"We were the Government party, people coalesced around the Liberals, they wanted to send a very clear message. We have got to learn from that and make sure that we don't make that mistake again.

"It was the local stuff that actually did for us. People saw that the Tories were absolutely nowhere, the Nationalists have just flat-lined, they piled in behind the Liberal Democrat and we paid the penalty."

The Independent

Rousing end to tense by-election

The cheers for Willie Rennie almost raised the roof as he was declared the victor in the Dunfermline and West Fife by-election.

It was an extremely tense but exciting finale following weeks of campaigning to find a successor to the late Labour MP Rachel Squire.

Ms Squire had been so highly regarded during her long-standing reign as MP for the area that the candidates knew she would be a hard act to follow.

Labour was defending a majority of more than 11,500 from the General Election - a formidable challenge for the party's opponents.

Whisperings of a "political earthquake" had begun at the count in the packed hall at Queen Anne High School in Dunfermline before midnight on Thursday.

However, it wasn't until the returning officer made the announcement that onlookers started showing their amazement.

Polling stations

As the winner was announced just before 0045 GMT on Friday morning, many people seemed to hold their breath.

Labour's Catherine Stihler had lost her fight to save the Labour seat.



At first things moved slowly following the close of polling stations at 2200 GMT.

Most people gathered for the count at the school in Broomhead Parks thought Labour would hold onto the seat and that it was all about the race for second place between the SNP and the Liberal Democrats.

Agents watched the counters intently as piles of ballot papers began to grow.

Candidates passed the time with journalists as they waited behind a yellow taped cordon for the result. There was idle and friendly chat.

When it became evident that the race was actually neck and neck between Labour and the Liberal Democrats, politicians began to openly admit that they were nervous and tense.

In the aftermath of the shock Labour defeat, many of the other eight candidates hailed Willie Rennie for an "historic victory".

He started his speech by paying tribute to "my Scottish leader Nicol Stephen", who he said had given him fantastic support.

He also added that it must have been a "deeply depressing night for the SNP" who came third.

It wasn't to be the SNP's night, despite the by-election being hosted in the town where the great Scot Robert the Bruce was buried.

However, for Willie Rennie it was a night for making history, taking what had been a safe Labour seat.

BBC News

Doubt over Brown’s chances of No 10

THE stunning election upset in Dunfermline early today has created a massive headache for the Holyrood coalition, even bigger problems for holding Labour together north and south of the border, and potential disaster for Gordon Brown's hopes of becoming prime minister.

Jack McConnell and Nicol Stephen will have to use all their political skills to keep their devolved coalition show on the road, after LibDems focused their attack on Labour, avoided flak for devolved issues, and inflicted unprecedented damage on its senior partner.

However, the legacy of this morning's extraordinary result is going to reverberate more significantly around Westminster. Catherine Stihler, Labour's candidate, can go back to work as an MEP, and expect her first child next month, but for Mr Brown, his day job at the Treasury is going to look very different when he returns from Moscow.

Although not on the ballot form, Mr Brown was the big loser last night. The chancellor must fear that Tony Blair's delayed departure from Number 10, allied to the impact of David Cameron re-positioning the Conservative party on New Labour's front lawn, have allied with the voters of Dunfermline to weaken his claim on the premiership he craves.

For Mr Brown, this is personal – because he made it so. With the death of Rachel Squire last month, Labour rushed into a brief campaign, with what seemed to be a safe bet that they could capitalise on the combination of her legacy, a big majority, and two rivals vying to establish themselves in second place.

Mr Brown swung into action as the neighbouring MP, eager to show his Westminster colleagues he is a vigorous election-winner. It is by a measure of his own choosing that the chancellor has become an election loser.

If anyone is harbouring plans to stand against him when Tony Blair stands down (John Reid, the defence secretary, for instance?) Fife voters yesterday gave him some powerful ammunition.

Where did Labour go wrong? Mr Brown looked out of touch, making his campaign appear nervy and insecure throughout, starting with an unforced blunder into a row about reserved and devolved powers over the Forth road bridge tolls and replacement. Trying to talk positively about the economy, countering the loss of 700 Lexmark jobs at Rosyth, and its distant promise off 10,000 jobs in the next 10 years, clearly failed to work.

But this was not only a Labour loss. It was grim news for Alex Salmond, who ran an "independence-lite" campaign in circumstances that should have been a platform for the Scottish National Party. Voters failed to respond to a parochial campaign about shoddy retail provision and the local hospital, and the party's momentum remains stalled yet again.

The result was also about a winner. Willie Rennie, the new Liberal Democrat MP for Dunfermline and West Fife, has been the cheerful Kelty face of a huge LibDem campaign effort. The party claims to have leafleted all 35,000 homes each day this week, with MSPs required to turn out by 6am yesterday morning for the final drop.

LibDems proved their formidable by-election machine works even in the toughest of times. Labour will not like it, but there are lessons there it needs to learn from its coalition partners.

The Herald

Lib Dems storm to election victory

THE Liberal Democrats swept to a dramatic victory in the Dunfermline and West Fife early this morning, condemning Labour to its worst by-election defeat in Scotland for 18 years.

Willie Rennie, the triumphant new MP, overturned a massive 11,500 Labour majority, recording a swing of 16 per cent to the Liberal Democrats and, in doing so, dealt a devastating blow to Gordon Brown's political credibility.

The Chancellor had led this Labour campaign, spending many days in the constituency and dictating the party's approach. Mr Brown, who lives in the constituency, was desperate to show he could deliver election victories on his own doorstep, and his failure to do so will reverberate around the Labour Party.

Mr Rennie said: "This result will rock the foundations of Downing Street - both No 10 and No 11."

He added: "People are fed up with Labour for taking them for granted for far too long, they are fed up of too much spin, and the people of Dunfermline and West Fife have spoken for the rest of the country with their views on the Labour government."

Nicol Stephen, the Scottish Liberal Democrat leader this morning described his party's success as "a sensational and historic victory".

Mr Stephen said: "It was an outstanding campaign with an outstanding candidate. It is clear the Liberal Democrats are a very powerful force for the future in Scottish politics, that we can win seats from the Labour Party in all parts of Scotland and that more and more people are turning to the Liberal Democrats."

Mr Rennie's win represented a massive fillip for his beleaguered party which has been battered and bruised, first by the forced resignation of Charles Kennedy over his drink problem and then Mark Oaten's sex scandal and the "outing" of Simon Hughes.

The Lib Dem win, the party's first by-election victory in Scotland since Nicol Stephen's success in Kincardine and Deeside in 1991, proved that the problems have not affected its ability to attract voters.

Mr Rennie secured 12,391 votes ahead of Catherine Stihler, the Labour candidate, on 10,591. Douglas Chapman, for the SNP, came third with 7,261 votes in a very disappointing night for the Nationalists which raises further questions over their ability to mount a credible challenge to Labour in next year's Scottish Parliament elections. Carrie Ruxton, the Tory candidate, was fourth with 2,702 votes.

With a turnout of 49 per cent, down 10 per cent down on last year's general election, the Liberal Democrats showed they had done much better than Labour at getting their vote out.

Labour strategists were trying to work out what had gone wrong. Early indications appeared to show that their supporters had simply failed to turn out.

The Liberal Democrats also benefited from a mood of change in the constituency.

They also picked a good candidate in Mr Rennie and he fought a typically intensive Liberal Democrat by-election campaign which succeeded in bringing the party its best by-election result in 15 years.

For Labour, yesterday's defeat represents the party's worst performance in a Westminster by-election since 1988 when Jim Sillars romped to victory for the SNP. This was despite the almost constant presence of Mr Brown. He was joined regularly by Alistair Darling, the Scottish Secretary and Jack McConnell, the First Minister.

However, Labour's campaign started badly and went downhill rapidly. The party's launch was overshadowed just 24 hours later by the loss of 700 jobs at Lexmark, an inkjet cartridge manufacturer in Rosyth. Then the party became embroiled in a series of controversies over the Forth Road Bridge, with Mr Brown appearing to dictate devolved policy to the Scottish Executive.

The Chancellor, who is in Moscow at a meeting of finance ministers today, was criticised for trying to interfere in Executive business, and Labour appeared divided and fractious from the start.

The Labour campaign did improve as polling day drew closer, but the arrival of David Cameron, the Tory leader, and Mr Kennedy, for his first major public appearance since his resignation as Liberal Democrat leader, caused further problems for the Labour campaign.

Alex Salmond, the SNP leader, also led his party's campaign, coming to Dunfermline on many occasions.

He seized on the problems of Dunfermline town centre as a main campaign issue and promised that the SNP would fight to regenerate it.

This proved to be popular and helped the Nationalists make some strides in the campaign, but not enough to challenge the Liberal Democrats or Labour for second place.

Scotsman

Stunning Lib Dem victory in Brown's backyard

The Liberal Democrats put their leadership woes behind them and won a startling by-election victory early today in the constituency where Gordon Brown has his family home.

In a personal humiliation for the Chancellor, the Lib Dems overturned an 11,500 Labour majority to capture Dunfermline and West Fife.

Their 1,800 majority represented a swing of 16.24 per cent.The Scottish National Party finished third but in David Cameron's first by-election since becoming Tory leader his candidate failed to improve on fourth place.

The Lib Dems were cock-a-hoop after defying predictions that they would suffer from bad publicity after the forced resignation of their leader, Charles Kennedy; the scandal that forced Mark Oaten out of the leadership race; and the personal difficulties of another contender, Simon Hughes.

Mr Kennedy will almost certainly claim a part in their victory - having paid a very high-profile visit to the constituency last week.

Mr Brown took personal charge of the Labour campaign for this contest - caused by the death of Rachel Squire - and the result will be a blow to his prestige as he waits to take over from Tony Blair.

He used to represent parts of the constituency until, following boundary changes, he switched to the neighbouring seat of Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath last May.

Mr Brown tried to fight it on his economic record and on what he claimed were his successes in bringing "jobs and prosperity" to the region.

But hardly had the campaign started when an American computer company announced its closure, throwing 700 people out of work.

The campaign centred on local issues, principally plans to increase toll charges on the Forth Road Bridge.

The Chancellor was in Moscow last night at a finance ministers meeting and Alex Salmond, the SNP leader, said: "Perhaps he should ask for political asylum."

Willie Rennie, the winning Lib Dem candidate, said: "This sends a powerful message to both No 10 and 11. Labour have taken the people for granted for too long and it is time Tony Blair and Gordon Brown got that message."

Telegraph

Lib Dems pull off stunning victory in Brown's backyard

Lib Dems pull off stunning victory in Brown's backyard



GORDON BROWN was dealt a major blow to his credibility as the next Prime Minister when the Liberal Democrats sensationally captured the constituency where the Chancellor has his home in a shock by-election result early this morning.

Willie Rennie pulled off a huge political coup for his party when he overturned a 11,562 Labour majority and delivered a swing of more than 16 per cent to defeat Catherine Stihler, the Labour candidate, in the Chancellor’s political backyard by 1,800 votes.

In his victory speech Mr Rennie said: “Tonight the voters of Dunfermline and West Fife have sent a powerful message to Downing Street that will rock the foundations of both No 10 and No 11.

“Labour has taken the people for granted up and down the country for too long. It is time Tony Blair and Gordon Brown both got the message — too much spin and not enough delivery. The Lib Dems are now the major challenger to Labour in their heartland.”

The result was a massive boost for the Lib Dems after weeks when they have been beset by internal problems, including the resignation of their former leader, Charles Kennedy, after he admitted a drink problem, and controversies involving two of those challenging to replace him: Mark Oaten and Simon Hughes.

The Lib Dem victory also amounted to a vote of confidence in Sir Menzies Campbell, the acting leader, who is MP for a neighbouring constituency of North East Fife.

Sir Menzies was replaced yesterday as favourite to succeed Mr Kennedy by Chris Huhne. The result will be a massive relief, though, to the whole of his party because it shows that it has not lost its gift for springing by-election surprises despite the shambles of recent weeks.

Labour strategists at the count privately blamed the aftermath of the Iraq war for the result. One said: “People on our side have been saying that the Iraq War has slipped off the political radar but this result shows that it hasn’t. It’s a dreadful result for us.”

During the campaign the 100th and 101st British victims of hostilities in Iraq died and were brought home. Both were members of the Royal Scots Dragoon Guards.

The Scottish Nationalists came third with 7,261 votes and the Conservatives, as expected, came fourth with 2,702 votes.

The poor Tory showing is an embarrassment for David Cameron, the Conservative leader, who made a direct appeal to Liberal Democrats in the constituency to come over to the Conservatives, claiming that he was a “liberal Conservative” and that his party now agreed with the Lib Dems on Iraq. That apparent gaffe was exploited to the full by Tony Blair in the Commons but he may well have helped the Lib Dem cause.

The result means a further cut in Labour’s Commons majority when Mr Blair is facing revolts on terrorism law, ID cards and schools reform.

The Lib Dems won after fighting a campaign in which they flooded the constituency with hundreds of activists, some of them from the South of England.

They were also helped by Labour incoherence over local issues such as the Forth Road Bridge tolls, the run-down state of the centre of Dunfermline and the downgrading of the local hospital.

The Labour campaign got off to the worst possible start when a major computer printer firm, Lexmark, announced the closure of its local plant with the loss of 700 jobs in Rosyth, in the heart of the constituency.Turn-out in the by-election was 48.7 per cent, down 11 per cent from the general election in May last year.

The Times

Lib Dems overturn huge Labour majority

Lib Dems overturn huge majority to beat Labour in by-election

The Liberal Democrats pulled off a sensational by-election coup early this morning, on Gordon Brown's doorstep. Their candidate, Willie Rennie, overturned an 11,562 Labour majority to seize the Dunfermline and West Fife constituency with a majority approaching 2,000 votes, pushing the total of Liberal Democrat MPs to 63, the highest since the 1930s.

The result will be a major confidence booster for the Liberal Democrats, and particularly for whoever emerges as their new leader next month. It suggests that the damage they have suffered since the resignation of Charles Kennedy is a lot less serious than opinion polls indicated.

Mr Rennie polled 12,391 votes, an increase of 15.7 per cent since the election in May 2005, while Labour's Catherine Stilher polled 10,591 votes, a drop of 16.8 per cent, when the late Rachel Squire won the seat for Labour with an overwhelming majority.

The Liberal Democrat winner had local connections. Mr Rennie grew up in the village of Strathmiglo, in the constituency. His family ran the village shop there.

Ms Stihler's campaign started badly, because of complaints that she should have resigned from her seat in the European Parliament, which she entered in 1999, aged 25, as the youngest MEP.

The result is a personal embarrassment for Gordon Brown, who has his family home in a seat now represented by a Liberal Democrat. His own constituency, Dunfermline West, is next door.
The only comfort Labour can draw from the result is the poor showing by the Conservatives, in the first big electoral test since David Cameron became leader. Tory candidate Carrie Ruxton received 2,702 votes as Douglas Chapman of the Scottish National Party received 7,261 votes.

Rumours that Labour might be in difficulty spread a week ago, when the government was defeated in the Commons over the Religious Hatred Bill. About a dozen Labour MPs had missed the vote because they were in Dunfermline, trying to firm up support for Mrs Stihler.

Labour activists will now have to ponder what will happen in the May council elections. A bad result is likely to increase the mood of rebelliousness among Labour MPs who are impatient for Tony Blair to resign quickly and hand over to Mr Brown.

The Independent

Lib Dems Reaction to Victory

Willie Rennie and the Liberal Democrats have won a sensational victory in the Dunfermline and West Fife by-election. There was a massive swing of 16% from the Labour Party to the Liberal Democrats (and 9% from Conservative to Lib Dem), just nine months after the General Election. The Liberal Democrats turned a Labour majority of 11,562 into 1,800. This victory was the first ever Liberal Democrat gain from the Labour Party in a Scottish by-election.

The result has stunned Labour and relegates David Cameron's Conservative Party to fourth in his first major electoral test since becoming Conservative leader. The result was the worst Conservative Parliamentary by-election result for 8 years (while Iain Duncan Smith and Michael Howard led the Party).

Willie Rennie, the Liberal Democrat victor said:

"I would like to thank the people of Dunfermline and West Fife for the trust that they have shown in me personally - and in the Liberal Democrats. Tonight they have sent a powerful message to the Labour Government. It is time that Tony Blair and Gordon Brown both got that message."

Willie added:

"There are messages tonight for all the major parties. The Liberal Democrat message that we want a fairer, greener and more democratic society - is one that wins widespread appeal.

"Labour has lost the confidence of people who supported them for generations. People want a change - but they do not want to go back to the Conservatives. This by-election has shown that the Conservatives are irrelevant in much of Britain. This is a terrible result for David Cameron - the Conservatives continue to decline. This must be a deeply depressing night for the SNP's Alex Salmond following their decline at the General Election."

Before the result many commentators thought that the Liberal Democrats would be fighting to retain the second place that they narrowly gained over the SNP at the General Election.

The Scottish Liberal Democrats have increased their vote in each of the last three General Elections and won 11 of the 59 seats in 2005. The SNP has lost support in each of the last three General Elections and fell to third place in votes and seats in 2005.

The by-election has proved that the residents of Dunfermline and West Fife preferred what Willie Rennie and the Liberal Democrats had to say on the key issues of the Labour's record on health and education, pension provision, Iraq and the proposed Forth Bridge toll hike and regeneration of Dunfermline.

Dunfermline Lib Dems

Lib Dems set to win

News 24 now say it looks like the Lib Dems Have won the Dunfermline by-election.

Shortly before midnight it was confirmed that the turnout was 48.74%, compared with 59.9% during last year's general election.

"Labour & Lib Dems neck & neck"

News 24 has said that the Lib Dems look to be doing much better than expected as the votes are counted in Dunfermline.

Result expected in the next hour.

Labour set to scrape election win

LABOUR appears to be heading for a narrow by-election victory in Dunfermline today - but with a massively reduced majority.

Early indications from postal vote returns and internal party polling suggest that Catherine Stihler, the Labour candidate, will scrape home as the new MP for Dunfermline and West Fife early tomorrow morning.

But the result is expected to be much closer than the comfortable 11,500 majority that Labour secured in last year's general election. Privately, Labour chiefs admit they expect a majority of between 2,000 and 3,000, but it could be even smaller and there is a chance that either the SNP or the Liberal Democrats could steal the seat if they can persuade enough Labour voters to switch sides or stay at home today.

The problem for the other main parties is that opposition to Labour has been evenly split. Had the Nationalists or the Liberal Democrats been seen as the main challenger, they could have attracted a big enough share of the anti-Labour vote to cause a real upset. But, with support for the SNP and the Lib Dems so finely balanced, neither has been strong enough to challenge Labour on their own.

Senior figures in both parties were talking up their respective chances last night, confident that a last-ditch effort today could see them clinch victory.

The battle for second and third place is very important for both parties. If the SNP comes second, having taken a large number of votes from Labour in what should be a safe Labour seat, Alex Salmond, the SNP leader, can claim to be on course for success in next year's Holyrood elections.

But if the Nationalists are beaten into third place, the Liberal Democrats will claim that their travails over their leadership election have not affected their support.

Ms Stihler made a last appeal to Labour voters to turn out.

She said: "Some Labour supporters may feel there is little at stake in this by-election. With respect, there is a lot at stake. We've brought 10,000 jobs to this area since 1997 and only Labour will deliver 10,000 more."

Lord Renard, chief executive of the Lib Dems, said: "It is the Liberal Democrats who will emerge from the campaign as the real challengers to Labour in Labour's former heartlands."

The SNP claimed to have the support of the local hospital campaigners, who contested the 2003 election, and Mr Salmond said: "It's clear from all the available evidence that there will be a huge swing to the SNP at the polls here tomorrow."

And Carrie Ruxton, the Tory candidate, said: "We have led on issues like the Forth Bridge and the hospital and now it's up to the voters to decide if they want a new face."

Ministers will confirm their decision on a new Forth road bridge by 31 March, the Scottish Executive said yesterday.

Scotsman

By-election too close to call

Bridging the election gap—Nicol Stephen and Willie Rennie discussing their by-election chances at the top of the Forth Rail Bridge yesterday.

THE LIB Dems claimed last night they were neck and neck with Labour in the race for the Dunfermline and West Fife by-election.

Nicol Stephen, the party’s Scottish leader, urged supporters to turn out today as “every vote will count.”

The party’s chief executive Lord Rennard said the Liberals were within sight of the 14% swing needed to seize the Westminster seat from Labour.

It wasn’t the Lib Dems who were concentrating Labour minds yesterday, but the SNP.

Labour candidate Catherine Stihler urged supporters not to take anything for granted and to turn out and vote today—or they could wake up to a Scottish National Party MP.

SNP leader Alex Salmond was in buoyant mood and predicted a huge swing to the SNP.

Meanwhile, Tory candidate Carrie Ruxton said her party offered a real choice to the voters.

Nine candidates will stand in the by-election, where Labour are defending a majority of more than 11,500.

It was brought about by the death of Rachel Squire (51) on January 5 after a long battle against illness.

Toll levels on the Forth road bridge, as well as its long-term future, have loomed large in the campaign.

And the day after Labour launched its campaign, printer firm Lexmark announced it was to close its factory in the constituency with the loss of 700 jobs.

Lord Rennard claimed voters had felt let down and taken for granted by Labour. “Liberal Democrats now sense the real prospect of a major upset in this by-election,” he said.

He added, “The first parliamentary by-election since David Cameron became Conservative party leader will highlight how irrelevant the Conservatives have become in many parts of Britain.”

Mr Stephen joined Willie Rennie, the party’s candidate, on a walkabout in Dunfermline High Street yesterday. Sir Menzies Campbell, acting leader of the Liberal Democrats, later joined their last-minute push.

Mr Rennie added, “The clear message that I am getting on the doorsteps is that local people feel let down by Labour and that it is time for a change.”

Mrs Stihler warned supporters not to take anything for granted and to turn out and vote today.

If they don’t, she said, they could wake up to an SNP MP in the shape of Nationalist candidate Douglas Chapman tomorrow morning.

The surprising admission came yesterday as the party geared up for the final day’s campaigning.

“Some Labour supporters may feel there is little at stake in this by-election,” she said. “With respect, there is a lot at stake.”

She argued that Labour had proved its commitment to the area by bringing in 10,000 jobs since 1997 and said only it could deliver 10,000 more.

“The success of Rosyth Dockyard shows what can be done,” she added.

Mr Salmond predicted a huge swing to the SNP. He joined Mr Chapman as he prepared for the final day’s campaigning.

“It’s clear from all the available evidence that there will be a huge swing to the SNP at the polls,” Mr Salmond said.

Mr Salmond continued, “Our campaign has been well organised and well focused, and Douglas Chapman is a tremendous candidate who will do a top class job of representing the people of this area as their Member of Parliament.

“Only Douglas Chapman can beat Labour and ensure real change for people here.”

Mr Chapman added, “The mood amongst local people is clear—we want change in our communities.

“People here want to put some pride back into their town, which has been let down badly under Labour leadership for decades.

“People in Fife are also still concerned about the Labour and Lib Dem proposal to increase the Forth road bridge tolls, and have not been fooled by Labour’s attempts to pull the wool over their eyes.”

Tory candidate Carrie Ruxton said her party offered a real choice to the voters. “I have talked about the issues that matter to the people—the bridge, Queen Margaret Hospital, Dunfermline town centre and the economy of Fife.”

“I am proud of the positive campaign I have led in this by-election. This is an exciting time to be a Conservative candidate as a new chapter opens in politics.

“The Conservatives offer a real choice to the voters on Thursday and I know many of them believe it is time for a change.”

The Courier

It's party central in Fife hot seat

IT'S traditional Labour territory which includes part of Chancellor Gordon Brown's former constituency, so the expectation is that the by-election in Dunfermline and West Fife should be a foregone conclusion.

When voters go to the polls tomorrow they are almost certain to elect Labour Euro-MP Catherine Stihler as their new representative at Westminster.

But even the most confident politicians experience a frisson of uncertainty when it comes to by-elections - and the safer the seat ought to be, the bigger potential there is for a major upset.

That's why Mr Brown has appeared uncharacteristically nervous over the past few weeks. Boundary changes at last year's general election may mean he is no longer the MP for places like Rosyth and Inverkeithing, but this is still seen as his patch and a poor performance by Labour could be damaging for the Prime Minister in waiting.

The Liberal Democrats, who were second last time, claim they are "closing" on Labour and the Scottish Nationalists, who were a close third, say they have overtaken the Lib Dems and could be within just three per cent of Labour.

One senior Labour figure says his party should win, but adds: "It's a by-election and if turnout is low, anything could happen."

The announcement of 700 job losses in the constituency with the closure of the Lexmark factory added a sombre note to the campaign. At one time such news would have spelled serious trouble for the party in power, but nowadays it is taken as the inevitable risk associated with investment by international firms.

The Forth Road Bridge has been the issue to capture most attention, mainly thanks to Mr Brown's intervention over the proposed £4 toll and the need for a second crossing. But possibly an even bigger area of concern for voters is the plan to downgrade Dunfermline's Queen Margaret Hospital.

It was hard not to feel sorry for the people of Dunfermline as they tried to do their shopping last Saturday morning. They had already endured a veritable media circus two days earlier when the Chancellor, Tory leader David Cameron, SNP leader Alex Salmond and former Lib Dem leader Charles Kennedy all made high-profile visits to the town.

And here they were, besieged once more by groups of politicians of all dispositions pouncing upon them within yards of each other.

Deputy First Minister and Scottish Lib Dem leader Nicol Stephen was there to accompany his party's candidate Willie Rennie on a sweep of the High Street, followed in close formation by a phalanx of Lib Dem activists, holding aloft diamond-shaped placards.

FIRST Minister Jack McConnell had put in an appearance earlier to boost Labour's campaign. Now a group of Labour MSPs and activists darted here and there handing out leaflets and red balloons to unsuspecting passers-by.

Mr Salmond was back, along with deputy Nicola Sturgeon, chatting one-to-one with locals, while Tory candidate Carrie Ruxton was rushed from shopper to shopper flanked by sole Scottish Tory MP David Mundell and officials. Former Labour MSP John McAllion, standing for the Scottish Socialists, was greeting people as they passed, while SSP leader Colin Fox attempted to grab their attention with the help of a megaphone.

The constituency, redrawn at last year's general election, includes not only Dunfermline but also Kincardine, Culross, Saline, Rosyth, North Queensferry, Inverkeithing and Crossgates.

Rachel Squire, whose death from a brain tumour led to the by-election, had been MP for the area since the 1992 general election.

The Lib Dems have mounted what they say is their biggest by-election operation in Scotland since Nicol Stephen won Kincardine and Deeside in 1991. They insist the bad publicity surrounding the party's leadership has not affected their reception on the doorstep. But it is hard to believe the ousting of a leader with a drink problem, followed by a rent-boy scandal involving one would-be successor and gay confessions from another will not dent their chances.

The party needs a 14 per cent swing to win the seat - which candidate Willie Rennie claims is far from impossible, recalling his role as agent in the Christchurch by-election in 1993, when the Lib Dems won the seat from the Tories with a 35 per cent swing.

Before last year's general election, the Scottish Nationalists were the habitual runners-up to Labour and they believe they have overtaken the Lib Dems once again. SNP candidate Douglas Chapman, who fought the seat last time, used to be a Rosyth councillor and also stood for the Scottish Parliament in Dunfermline West.

The Tories do not pretend they have any chance of winning the seat, but it is the first electoral test for David Cameron's new-image Conservatism. His candidate, dietician Carrie Ruxton, is eager to preach the message. "What I'm trying to do is get people talking about the Conservatives and having a different view of the Conservatives," she says.

She stood in Dunfermline East in the first Scottish Parliament elections but ruffled a few feathers down south when she was chosen to fight Northavon in Gloucestershire at the 2001 general election because she was an unmarried mother.

Now back living in Fife, she is seen as a rising star by the party leadership, but her selection was attacked by Tory councillor Stuart Randall, who had hoped to be the candidate. There was also controversy over Labour's selection of Ms Stihler since Euro MPs need special permission from the party's executive before they can bid for a seat at Westminster or Holyrood and others, including Lothians-based Euro MP David Martin have found their ambitions blocked.

However, politicians on all sides admit such internal squabbles are unlikely to have much effect on tomorrow's result.

In the end, the verdict of the voters will depend on a strange mixture of national and local concerns - whether they think any of the candidates can help save their hospital, how worried they are about bridge tolls, what they think of the Labour Government and whether they like the idea of Gordon Brown as Prime Minister.

But one political opponent claims despite his high profile and long connection with the area, the Chancellor has one major disadvantage in Dunfermline which has not yet been factored into the calculations - "He's a Raith Rovers supporter."

Evening News

Tory leader adopts Lib line on Iraq

CONSERVATIVE LEADER David Cameron was accused last night of an astonishing policy U-turn over the war in Iraq in a last ditch attempt to woo Liberal Democrat voters in Dunfermline and West Fife.

In an election leaflet he describes himself as a 'liberal Conservative' and claims his party and the Liberal Democrats 'agree' on Iraq.

'Issues that once divided Conservatives from Liberal Democrats are now issues where we both agree,' Mr Cameron says in the leaflet. 'Our attitude to devolution and the localisation of power. Iraq. The environment. IÕm a liberal Conservative.'

The Liberal Democrats opposed British involvement in the war in Iraq and have consistently demanded a firm timetable for the withdrawal of British troops.

Last spring in Perth deputy leader Sir Menzies Campbell called on Prime Minister Tony Blair to bring British soldiers home 'by the end of the year.'

The Tories gave their wholehearted backing to the war against Saddam Hussein and the subsequent occupation of Iraq by British troops and have not demanded a timetable for withdrawing British troops.

SNP leader Alex Salmond accused Mr Cameron of 'one of the biggest about-turns in military history.'

He said, 'This is an astonishing U-turn from the Tory leader and I would now expect him to put his name to our motion of impeachment of the Prime Minister.

'Having backed Blair to the hilt on Iraq it seems Cameron is doing one of the biggest about-turns in military history.

'However, converts to sanity must always be welcomed.

'It is a pity Mr Cameron didnÕt see the light somewhat sooner.'

He added, 'This is quite extraordinary. The next thing you know theyÕll be waving Saltires.

'I think the Liberal leadership contest should be suspended and (they) just accept David Cameron as their new leader.'

The Liberal Democrat by-election candidate Willie Rennie said, 'The Conservatives are clearly clutching at straws in a vain attempt to save their deposit.

'They havenÕt got a chance of winning in Dunfermline and West Fife. They came a poor fourth last time and they are a complete irrelevance here.

'Everyone knows full well that the Tories supported the war in Iraq. David Cameron should know that the voters of Fife do not have short memoriesÑparticularly when it comes to the Tories and their track record in Scotland.'

Labour candidate Catherine Stihler said, 'The people of Dunfermline and West Fife know you cannot trust the Tories.

'David Cameron tells Conservative voters he is a Tory. He tells Liberal voters he is a Liberal. He tells Labour voters he is new Labour. David Cameron is a fraud, desperate to be all things to all people.'

Shadow Scottish Secretary David Mundell insisted that there was agreement between the Tory and Liberal Democrat positions on Iraq.

'Both Liberal Democrats and Conservatives agree that we need a clear strategy that will allow our forces to return from Iraq,' he said.

'Furthermore, David Cameron this week set out new proposals that Parliament must agree any future use of British forces and that is an area where we are in agreement with the Liberal Democrats.'

Earlier this week Mr Cameron proposed stripping future prime ministers of royal prerogative powers to go to war without a vote of MPs.

Tony Blair, however, insisted yesterday that he would not send troops to war without giving MPs a say unless it was necessary to act immediately for the security of the country.

The Courier

Labour in final push in Dunfermline

Catherine Stihler has warned Labour voters in Dunfermline and West Fife that if they stay at home in Thursday's by-election they risk waking up to an SNP MP on Friday morning.

Catherine said: "Some Labour supporters may feel there is little at stake in this by-election. With respect, there is a lot at stake."

"We've brought 10,000 jobs to this area since 1997 and only Labour will deliver 10,000 more."

"Only Labour has outlined plans to bring prestigious investment to our area, like the £30 million school for training executives which will create 400 jobs."

"The success of Rosyth Dockyard shows what can be done. My friend and colleague Rachel Squire successfully fought to keep the yard open when the Tories tried to close it."

"Now, under Labour, Rosyth is training more manufacturing apprentices than anywhere else in Scotland."

"But it didn't happen by accident. It happened because Dunfermline and West Fife voted for a Labour government and a Labour MP."

Catherine Stihler has already launched a campaign for a second road bridge across the Forth and succeeded in getting the proposed £4 road toll scrapped.

She said: "This is my community. I have listened, I know what people are concerned about and I will fight for them."

"I will fight for the re-generation of Dunfermline city centre."

"Labour has delivered the tough new measures to tackle anti-social behaviour which scars too many of our neighbourhoods."


"I will work with local communities to make sure the police and council take full advantage of Labour's measures to tackle the yobs. I will fight to make our streets safer."

"Labour is investing record amounts into the NHS. In our own community £12 million is being spent on re-furbishing and modernising the Queen Margaret Hospital. I will fight for first class health services in our area."

"And here in Fife, Labour has spent nearly £75 million building new schools and refurbishing others. Our children deserve the best start in life and investment in education is the best investment we can make."

"We are spending this cash to give all our kids the chance to turn fails into passes, 'B' grades into 'A' grades, dead end jobs into careers with prospects, leaving school at 16 to finishing university with a degree."

"Labour has done more for hard-working families than any other government in history."

"Nearly 7,000 families in this constituency are benefiting from the Child Tax Credit and the Working Tax Credit."

"From April this year the maximum support for families with two children will rise from £140 a week to £240 a week. Anything other than a Labour victory on Thursday will put that work at risk.

"Two million pensioners have been lifted out of poverty since Labour came to power with a guarantee – linked to earnings – of a minimum income of £109 a week."

"The £200 Winter Fuel allowance has warmed the homes of almost 13,000 pensioners in this community and locally almost two and a half thousand pensioners are benefiting from an average of nearly £40 a week from the Pensioners Credit.

"All of this is at risk if a party other than Labour wins on Thursday."

Scots Secretary Alistair Darling added his endorsement of Catherine as the candidate to succeed Rachel Squire.

Alistair Darling said:

"Catherine is a first class local candidate who served her political apprenticeship under Rachel. She is the person Rachel wanted to succeed her."

"I ask everyone who lives in Dunfermline and West Fife to preserve her memory by voting for Labour."

"Do it for Rachel. And do it for every hard-working family, every pensioner and every child in your community."

Scottish Labour Party

It's neck and neck between Willie Rennie and Labour

It's neck and neck between Willie Rennie and Labour in the Dunfermline by-election and every single vote will count.

This is the message that Nicol Stephen, Scottish Liberal Democrat leader, impressed upon local people as he joined Willie Rennie on the campaign trail this morning.

With less than 24 hours until polls open, the party is increasingly confident that it can close the gap on Labour with more and more Conservative and SNP voters switching to support the Lib Dems.

Campaigning efforts have been stepped up yet again with Scottish leader Nicol Stephen leading the full team of Lib Dem MSPs out on the doorsteps on Tuesday evening before returning again this morning to join Willie Rennie on an eve-of-poll walkabout in Dunfermline High Street.

Acting leader of the Liberal Democrats, Sir Menzies Campbell MP, will also hit the campaign trail, flying straight up from London after Prime Minister's Questions to drive home the message that only a few votes currently separate Willie Rennie and Labour.

Speaking today, Nicol Stephen said:

"It will be a clear choice at the polls on Thursday. The election result is balancing on a knife-edge and Willie Rennie is the only candidate who can beat Labour in Dunfermline and West Fife.

"Willie has fought a strong and positive campaign on the issues that matter most to local people and it is now clear that there is a growing and powerful swing in his favour.

"More and more Conservative and SNP voters are switching their support to the Lib Dems and backing Willie Rennie to win. They realise that this is a two-horse race between Willie Rennie and the Labour candidate.

"The people of Dunfermline have a real opportunity to elect a strong champion for their area by voting Liberal Democrat and electing Willie Rennie."

Willie Rennie added:

"The clear message that I am getting on the doorsteps is that local people feel let down by Labour and that it is time for a change.

"I am determined to be a powerful voice for local people, standing up against the £4 tolls, against Fife Council's neglect of the High Street and in favour of new investment in our schools and local health services at the Queen Margaret hospital.

"We've won the argument to stop the £4 tolls. We are closing the gap on Labour and the Lib Dems can win in Dunfermline and West Fife on Thursday."

Dunfermline Lib Dems

Dunfermline - It's Going To Be Close

SNP Leader Alex Salmond MP and local candidate Douglas Chapman today hosted the party's final press conference before the polls opened in the Parliamentary by-election in Dunfermline and West Fife at an event in Dunfermline today.

With less than 24 hours to go before polling stations open, the SNP is predicting a close contest with Labour when the votes are counted tomorrow.

Speaking at the event, Mr Salmond said:

"It's clear from all the available evidence that there will be a huge swing to the SNP at the polls here tomorrow.

"Our campaign has been well organised and well focused, and Douglas Chapman is a tremendous candidate, who will do a top class job of representing the people of this area as their Member of Parliament.

"The last election in Fife was the by-election in Burntisland in September which saw a huge 13.2 percent swing to the SNP from Labour. Only a small improvement in this result will result in one of the most significant results in Scottish political history.

"Only Douglas Chapman can beat Labour and ensure real change for people here."

Mr Chapman said:

"The mood amongst local people is clear ­ we want change in our communities.

"People here want to put some pride back into their town, which has been let down badly under Labour leadership for decades.

"Local people want top class local hospital services, and so I'm proud to have the public support of David Wishart, the Independent Hospital Candidate in 2003. If those who supported his cause in that election vote for me tomorrow we will win here.

"People in Fife are also still concerned about the Labour and LibDem proposal to increase the Forth Road Bridge Tolls, and have not been fooled by Labour's attempts to pull the wool over their eyes. In addition, local people know the increase in Council Tax which will be officially announced tomorrow will punish those on low and fixed incomes hardest, and they resent paying more under Labour and the Liberals while their education serices face yet more cuts.

"Labour have had their chance to make a positive difference to the area, and they have failed to deliver. Only by voting for the SNP tomorrow can local people make a difference and change the area for the better. Tomorrow is their chance to put a bit of pride back into our community."

Dunfermline SNP

Dunfermline Labour Leaflets

Dunfermline & West Fife by-election
PARTY: Scottish Labour Party
CANDIDATE: Catherine Stihler



CLICK HERE TO SEE ALL AVAILABLE LEAFLETS

Firm views given on bridge tolls

By-election - Public meeting 6 Feb 2006 - Report in The Courier



The Courier

Hospital services ignite debate at Fife hustings

The Common Good Party candidate the Rev Richard Rodgers speaking at the hustings


HOSPITAL SERVICES dominated the debate at a hustings organised by The Courier in Dunfermline last night.

All nine candidates standing at the Dunfermline and West Fife by-election fielded questions from members of the public and community activists during an event at the Glen Pavilion.

Len Woods asked about reorganisation of services at Queen Margaret Hospital in Dunfermline.

He said, “Up until 2010, a pregnant woman in Fife has the choice of a birth at home or a trip to the Victoria in Kirkcaldy. After 2010, she has the choice of a birth at home or a midwife-led situation at Queen Margaret, with complicated cases going to the Vic. Is this an acceptable situation in modern day society?”

Labour candidate Catherine Stihler, who is expecting her first child in a few months, said, “Any mother-to-be like myself would support a midwife-led unit in Dunfermline and West Fife. We don’t have that at the moment.”

Carrie Ruxton, for the Conservative Party, disagreed and said it amounted to downgrading of hospital services.

The Rev George Hargreaves, of the Scottish Christian Party, said, “I’m glad I’ve got two grown up sons and my wife won’t have to be subjected to this level of service.”

For the Liberal Democrats, Willie Rennie said the situation was “not acceptable” and pledged to work with local hospital campaigners if elected.

Douglas Chapman, SNP candidate, said, “I don’t believe Fife health board or ministers have made the case to move services out of Dunfermline.”

Scottish Socialist candidate John McAllion said the cost of paying for hospitals built by private finance initiatives (PFI) would take money away from services.

Ian Borland, for UKIP, said the party would “bring back local power.”

National Alliance Against Tolls candidate Tom Minogue said, “When my second daughter went into labour she was sent away because they were short-staffed in Kirkcaldy. She went back and gave birth to the baby as she walked in the door.

“If she lived in Culross she would have given birth to my granddaughter on the motorway.”

The Common Good Party candidate, the Rev Richard Rodgers said health boards “depended too much on private funding.”

John Winton, from hospital campaign group Local Health Concern, then asked what action the candidates, if elected, would pressurise NHS Fife and the government to take.

Mr McAllion said he would call for round the clock services. He said one woman had to wait three hours for an ambulance after suffering a severe angina attack.

A full range of services in the Fife region was Mr Rodgers’ answer, and UKIP said they would question where money ploughed into the NHS was being spent.

Mrs Stihler said Labour had brought about a £12 million investment in Queen Margaret Hospital and promised “first class services for the people of Fife.”

An accident and emergency unit should be retained in Dunfermline, said Ms Ruxton, who also said money should not be wasted on another operating theatre at the Victoria when there were eight at Queen Margaret.

Mr Chapman said he would demand a “full accident and emergency service” as well as children’s services be kept in Dunfermline.

Mr Minogue pointed out that many people in west Fife were former dockyard workers or coal miners and said care for people with “industrial diseases” was vital.

Fife Labour Councillor Alan Kenney commented that the issue was not about “bricks and mortar” but about the shortage of skilled professionals.

Health service campaigner Letitia Murphy also asked about the future of Queen Margaret. Mr McAllion said hospitals should “never have anything to do with the public sector.”

Mr Hargreaves said, “Hospitals were first and foremost set up by the church to take care of people, not for profit. That’s how the health service should be.”

But Mr Rennie said, “In terms of private finance, I think if it improves patient care and you get value for money, and it actually does improve the health service overall, then I think you should use it.”

Ms Ruxton said, “No more reviews, lets just get on with it. I don’t want to take my sick child all the way to Kirkcaldy and neither do you.”

Mr Chapman added, “I never thought I would see a Labour government promoting the private sector within the NHS.”

The Courier

Conservatives last ditch attempt to woo Liberal Democrat voters

Tory leader adopts Lib line on Iraq

CONSERVATIVE LEADER David Cameron was accused last night of an astonishing policy U-turn over the war in Iraq in a last ditch attempt to woo Liberal Democrat voters in Dunfermline and West Fife.

In an election leaflet he describes himself as a “liberal Conservative” and claims his party and the Liberal Democrats “agree” on Iraq.

“Issues that once divided Conservatives from Liberal Democrats are now issues where we both agree,” Mr Cameron says in the leaflet. “Our attitude to devolution and the localisation of power. Iraq. The environment. I’m a liberal Conservative.”

The Liberal Democrats opposed British involvement in the war in Iraq and have consistently demanded a firm timetable for the withdrawal of British troops.

Last spring in Perth deputy leader Sir Menzies Campbell called on Prime Minister Tony Blair to bring British soldiers home “by the end of the year.”

The Tories gave their wholehearted backing to the war against Saddam Hussein and the subsequent occupation of Iraq by British troops and have not demanded a timetable for withdrawing British troops.

SNP leader Alex Salmond accused Mr Cameron of “one of the biggest about-turns in military history.”

He said, “This is an astonishing U-turn from the Tory leader and I would now expect him to put his name to our motion of impeachment of the Prime Minister.

“Having backed Blair to the hilt on Iraq it seems Cameron is doing one of the biggest about-turns in military history.

“However, converts to sanity must always be welcomed.

“It is a pity Mr Cameron didn’t see the light somewhat sooner.”

He added, “This is quite extraordinary. The next thing you know they’ll be waving Saltires.

“I think the Liberal leadership contest should be suspended and (they) just accept David Cameron as their new leader.”

The Liberal Democrat by-election candidate Willie Rennie said, “The Conservatives are clearly clutching at straws in a vain attempt to save their deposit.

“They haven’t got a chance of winning in Dunfermline and West Fife. They came a poor fourth last time and they are a complete irrelevance here.

“Everyone knows full well that the Tories supported the war in Iraq. David Cameron should know that the voters of Fife do not have short memories—particularly when it comes to the Tories and their track record in Scotland.”

Labour candidate Catherine Stihler said, “The people of Dunfermline and West Fife know you cannot trust the Tories.

“David Cameron tells Conservative voters he is a Tory. He tells Liberal voters he is a Liberal. He tells Labour voters he is new Labour. David Cameron is a fraud, desperate to be all things to all people.”

Shadow Scottish Secretary David Mundell insisted that there was agreement between the Tory and Liberal Democrat positions on Iraq.

“Both Liberal Democrats and Conservatives agree that we need a clear strategy that will allow our forces to return from Iraq,” he said.

“Furthermore, David Cameron this week set out new proposals that Parliament must agree any future use of British forces and that is an area where we are in agreement with the Liberal Democrats.”

Earlier this week Mr Cameron proposed stripping future prime ministers of royal prerogative powers to go to war without a vote of MPs.

Tony Blair, however, insisted yesterday that he would not send troops to war without giving MPs a say unless it was necessary to act immediately for the security of the country.

The Courier

SSP by-election campaign

Colin Fox, John McAllion and Carolyn Leckie (Pic: Duncan Brown)


Scottish Socialist Party (SSP) MSPs Colin Fox and Carolyn Leckie join candidate John McAllion (centre) in his campaign in the Dunfermline & West Fife by-election taking place on Thursday of this week. John McAllion is a former Labour MP who has recently joined the SSP. Scottish Socialist Party candidate Angela McCormick is also campaigning in the Milton council by-election in Glasgow, set for Thursday of next week.

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